By Tanzeel Ul Rehman | September 27, 2026
India are heavy favourites in our India vs Afghanistan quarter final prediction, with an 85 percent chance to reach the Asian Games 2026 semi finals. The match starts at 2:00 PM local time on Monday, September 28 at Kōrogi Sports Park, Nisshin (10:30 AM IST, 10:00 AM PKT). There is a catch, though. Forecasts show a rain chance above 90 percent, and if no result is possible, India go through on seeding. That is exactly how they won gold against this same opponent three years ago.
Below: the unfinished 2023 final, why the gap between these squads is so wide this time, what Nepal showed about beating Afghanistan, likely XIs and a fantasy side built for a rain shortened game. For every result so far, see our Asian Games 2026 cricket hub.
India vs Afghanistan Quarter Final: Match Facts
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Stage | Quarter Final 2, men’s cricket |
| Fixture | India vs Afghanistan |
| Day and date | Monday, September 28, 2026 |
| First ball | 2:00 PM Japan time |
| Ground | Kōrogi Sports Park, Nisshin |
| Leaders | Shreyas Iyer (India), Darwish Rasooli (Afghanistan) |
| Next up for the winner | Semi Final 2 on October 1, against the winner of Bangladesh vs Malaysia |
India are the top seeds and defending champions. Afghanistan finished second in Group A behind Nepal, which is why they drew the hardest possible quarter final. It is the afternoon game, so both teams will already know the morning result between Pakistan and Hong Kong.
Start Time for India vs Afghanistan Around the World
| Where you are | Local time |
|---|---|
| Japan | 2:00 PM, Monday |
| Afghanistan | 9:30 AM, Monday |
| Pakistan | 10:00 AM, Monday |
| India | 10:30 AM, Monday |
| UK | 6:00 AM, Monday |
A mid morning start is ideal for fans in South Asia. With the weather this uncertain, though, keep checking for delays before you plan your morning around it.
Will Rain Decide India vs Afghanistan Again?
It might, and that is the biggest unknown in any India vs Afghanistan quarter final prediction. Forecasts for Nisshin on Monday show a 91 percent chance of rain, with a smaller risk of thunderstorms, and Tuesday looks just as wet. The ground has already lost almost two full games to rain. Nepal’s innings against Japan was cut to 15 overs and never finished, and Malaysia vs Oman did not start at all.
Here is how the rules work, in simple terms:
- If some play is possible, the umpires will shorten the match and set a revised target using the Duckworth Lewis Stern (DLS) method. DLS is a formula that adjusts the target based on overs lost and wickets in hand.
- If no result is possible at all, the higher seeded team goes through. India are the top seed, so a complete washout sends India to the semi finals.
- No reserve day has been announced for this quarter final.
So Afghanistan cannot just survive the day. They need enough cricket for a result, and then they need to win it. For India, every hour of rain is quietly good news.
The 2023 Final That Never Finished
This fixture has history that no other quarter final can match. On October 7, 2023, in Hangzhou, India and Afghanistan met in the Asian Games gold medal match. Afghanistan batted first and had reached 112 for 5 after 18.2 overs when rain arrived. Play never resumed. Since there was no result, gold went to the higher seeded team, and India became champions without facing a single ball.
For Afghanistan, it is still a sore point. They never got the chance to defend their total or to bowl at India. For India, it was a gold medal with a small asterisk beside it.
Three years on, the same rule is in place, the same forecast problem is back, and the two sides meet again in a knockout. This time, though, it is only a quarter final, and India bring a much stronger team than they did in 2023.
How Big Is the Gap Between These Two Squads?
India: Almost the World Champion T20 Side
In 2023, India sent a second string squad led by Ruturaj Gaikwad. This time the BCCI has sent close to its first choice T20 group. India are back to back T20 World Cup champions, and this squad includes Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh, Axar Patel, Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson, Tilak Varma and Shivam Dube, with Shreyas Iyer as captain.
They also come in with fresh match practice. India swept Afghanistan 3 to 0 in a T20I series in Delhi this month, with Abhishek scoring a record hundred. They then played Japan in a T20I in Sano, which our India vs Japan preview covered. Pakistan arrived with no games in Japan. India have already played in Japanese conditions.
Afghanistan: A New Group Without the Stars
Afghanistan’s Asian Games squad is a very different group from the one you know. There is no Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Rahmanullah Gurbaz or Noor Ahmad. Captain Darwish Rasooli leads a side built around domestic performers and a few experienced hands, such as Najibullah Zadran and Karim Janat.
The honest comparison is this: India’s bench here would walk into Afghanistan’s XI. Afghanistan also arrive having lost four of their last five T20Is. Their chance depends on conditions and luck, not on matching India player for player.
What Did the Group Stage Reveal About Afghanistan?
Afghanistan played two games in Nisshin, and they tell two different stories.
Against Japan, the bowling was excellent. Afghanistan made 129 for 6, the best completed first innings of the group stage, with Mohammad Akram scoring 34 and Darwish Rasooli 29. Then fast bowler Arab Gul Momand took 4 for 8 in four overs, and Japan were all out for 81.
Against Nepal, the batting fell apart. Left arm spinner Lalit Rajbanshi took all three wickets in the powerplay, and Afghanistan were 16 for 3 in the fifth over. Leg spinner Kushal Bhurtel finished with 4 for 21. Only Faisal Khan Ahmadzai and Najibullah Zadran, with 30 each, got past 20. Afghanistan made 102 for 7, and Nepal chased it down with 16 balls to spare. Our Afghanistan vs Nepal preview had pointed to that top order as the weak spot.
The lesson for India is clear. Afghanistan’s young batters struggled badly against left arm spin with the new ball. India have Axar Patel, who can bowl in the powerplay, plus Washington Sundar’s off spin. Expect Iyer to use spin inside the first six overs.
India vs Afghanistan T20I Head to Head and Records
Afghanistan are still waiting for their first T20I win against India. The only game they did not lose was the 2023 Asian Games final, which ended with no result.
| Record | Detail |
|---|---|
| Afghanistan T20I wins vs India | None |
| No results | 1 (Asian Games final, Hangzhou 2023) |
| Most recent series | India won 3 to 0, Delhi, September 2026 |
| Famous game | Bengaluru, January 2024, decided in a second Super Over |
| Top individual score | Virat Kohli, 122*, Asia Cup 2022 |
| Best bowling | Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 5 for 4, Asia Cup 2022 |
The records show how one sided the fixture has been. They also show that most of the big numbers belong to players who are not here. Kohli’s 122 not out was his first T20I hundred, and Bhuvneshwar’s 5 for 4 came in the same game. Rohit Sharma’s hundred in the Bengaluru thriller, which went to two Super Overs, is the closest Afghanistan have come to a win. None of those three are in this match.
The more useful guide is this month’s Delhi series. India won all three games comfortably, and Abhishek was the standout. For how that series played out, see our India vs Afghanistan T20I series guide.
India vs Afghanistan Squads for the Asian Games 2026
India: Shreyas Iyer (captain), Tilak Varma (vice captain), Abhishek Sharma, Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Sanju Samson (wicketkeeper), Ishan Kishan (wicketkeeper), Shivam Dube, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Vipraj Nigam, Ravi Bishnoi, Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh, Yash Thakur
Afghanistan: Darwish Rasooli (captain), Mohammad Akram, Hassan Eisakhil, Khalid Taniwal, Faisal Khan, Najibullah Zadran, Mohammad Ishaq (wicketkeeper), Ismat Alam, Karim Janat, Nangyal Kharoti, Farmanullah Safi, Arab Gul Momand, Faridoon Dawoodzai, Abdullah Ahmadzai, Imran Mir
One name to watch for the future is Vaibhav Sooryavanshi. He is 15 and was player of the series in Zimbabwe, but he has not played in India’s last four T20Is. Samson and Abhishek are the first choice openers, so he is likely to wait again.
India vs Afghanistan Quarter Final Possible Playing 11
India Possible XI
| Order | Player | Job |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abhishek Sharma | Opener |
| 2 | Sanju Samson | Opener |
| 3 | Ishan Kishan (wk) | Top order |
| 4 | Shreyas Iyer (c) | Middle order |
| 5 | Tilak Varma | Middle order |
| 6 | Shivam Dube | Power hitter |
| 7 | Axar Patel | Spin all rounder |
| 8 | Washington Sundar | Spin all rounder |
| 9 | Ravi Bishnoi | Leg spinner |
| 10 | Arshdeep Singh | Left arm fast |
| 11 | Jasprit Bumrah | Fast bowler |
Change from the Japan game: Bumrah returns after being rested, most likely in place of Yash Thakur. That puts India’s world title winning new ball pair back together.
Afghanistan Possible XI
| Order | Player | Job |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammad Akram | Opener |
| 2 | Hassan Eisakhil | Opener |
| 3 | Karim Janat | Top order, seam |
| 4 | Faisal Khan | Middle order |
| 5 | Najibullah Zadran | Middle order |
| 6 | Mohammad Ishaq (wk) | Wicketkeeper |
| 7 | Darwish Rasooli (c) | Middle order |
| 8 | Nangyal Kharoti | Spin all rounder |
| 9 | Abdullah Ahmadzai | Spinner |
| 10 | Faridoon Dawoodzai | Seamer |
| 11 | Arab Gul Momand | Fast bowler |
Afghanistan might move Rasooli up the order after the collapse against Nepal. A captain batting at seven while the top order falls apart is hard to justify in a knockout.
Where Will the IND vs AFG Quarter Final Be Won?
The first six overs of India’s batting. Abhishek and Samson attack from ball one. If rain cuts the game to 8 or 10 overs, the powerplay is half the innings. Arab Gul Momand is Afghanistan’s one bowler in real form. If he removes Abhishek early, India’s middle order will have to rebuild, something they are rarely asked to do.
Axar Patel against Afghanistan’s top three. Nepal showed what left arm spin does to this batting order. Axar is quicker and more accurate than Rajbanshi, and he bowls to stump lines. If he opens the bowling and takes two wickets in his first two overs, the match is close to over.
Najibullah Zadran against Bumrah at the death. Najibullah is Afghanistan’s one proven finisher, with 55, 55 not out and 64 not out in recent white ball games. Bumrah’s yorkers in the last four overs are what he has to survive. Afghanistan’s hope of a total above 140 rests on that contest.
IND vs AFG Dream11 Team for the Quarter Final
A shortened match is likely, so this team favours top order batters and bowlers who bowl early.
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Wicketkeepers | Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan |
| Batters | Abhishek Sharma, Tilak Varma, Najibullah Zadran |
| All rounders | Axar Patel, Shivam Dube, Karim Janat |
| Bowlers | Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh, Arab Gul Momand |
Team mix: India 8, Afghanistan 3.
Captain and Vice Captain
- Captain: Abhishek Sharma. He opens, he is in career best form after this month’s hundred, and he bowls some left arm spin. In a short game, the opener who faces the most balls usually tops the fantasy scores.
- Vice captain: Axar Patel. He is likely to bowl in the powerplay against a top order that struggles against left arm spin, and he adds runs lower down.
Riskier Picks
- Arab Gul Momand: With 5 wickets in two games at this ground, he is Afghanistan’s best chance of fantasy points. Few users will pick him against India.
- Karim Janat: He bats in the top three and bowls seam. If Afghanistan bat first and the game runs a full 20 overs, he can score in both halves.
- For a very short game (5 to 8 overs): Drop a spinner and add Tilak Varma or Shivam Dube. In tiny matches, big hitters outscore bowlers who may bowl only one over.
Please remember that paid fantasy contests involve real money risk. Keep it fun and within limits you are comfortable with.
Should the Toss Winner Bat or Bowl?
Bowl first, almost certainly. This is the easiest toss call in the India vs Afghanistan quarter final. With rain this likely, the side batting second gets a precise DLS target and can plan its chase around it. The side batting first is guessing how many overs it will get. Chasing has also been comfortable at this ground when the target is modest. Malaysia and Nepal both won batting second with plenty to spare.
The only argument for batting first is the slow pitch, which gets harder to score on in the second innings. On a day like Monday, that risk is small compared to the value of knowing the target.
India vs Afghanistan Quarter Final Prediction: Our Call
| Area | Edge |
|---|---|
| Batting firepower | India, by a distance |
| Pace attack | India (Bumrah, Arshdeep) |
| Spin | India (Axar, Bishnoi, Sundar) |
| Experience at this ground | Afghanistan (two games played) |
| Head to head | India (no T20I defeats) |
| Rain and washout | India (top seed) |
Prediction: India win the quarter final. Win chance: India 85 percent, Afghanistan 15 percent.
Our India vs Afghanistan quarter final prediction is one of the most confident calls of the tournament. India have better players in every role, and if the weather ruins the day, the rules also favour them. The likely result is a comfortable India win in a shortened match, with Axar or Bumrah doing early damage and Abhishek finishing the chase quickly.
Afghanistan’s only realistic route is the one that almost worked in 2023: bat first, post a competitive score, and hope the weather allows exactly enough cricket to bowl India out of a short chase. That is a long shot.
How to Follow IND vs AFG Live
In India, the match is on the Sony Sports Network, with streaming on the SonyLIV app and website. For ball by ball updates and DLS targets, use ESPNcricinfo’s match preview and live page. For medal tables and the official schedule across all sports, the Olympics.com Asian Games cricket page is updated after every game.
India vs Afghanistan Quarter Final FAQs
-
Who will win the India vs Afghanistan quarter final?
India are big favourites, with an 85 percent chance in our prediction. They have a near full strength T20 side against a young Afghanistan squad, and a complete washout would also send India through as the top seed.
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What time does India vs Afghanistan start?
It starts at 2:00 PM Japan time on Monday, September 28, 2026. That is 10:30 AM in India, 10:00 AM in Pakistan and 9:30 AM in Afghanistan.
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What happens if rain washes out India vs Afghanistan?
If there is enough play, the match is shortened and a DLS target is set. If no result is possible, the higher seeded team, India, goes through to the semi finals.
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What happened in the 2023 Asian Games final between India and Afghanistan?
Afghanistan were 112 for 5 after 18.2 overs in Hangzhou when rain stopped play. The match was abandoned, and India won gold as the higher seeded team.
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Why are Rashid Khan and Mohammad Nabi not playing for Afghanistan?
Afghanistan sent a younger squad to the Asian Games, led by Darwish Rasooli, and left out its senior international stars.
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Has Afghanistan ever beaten India in a T20I?
No. Afghanistan have never beaten India in a T20I. The 2023 Asian Games final ended with no result, and India have won every other completed match, including a 3 to 0 series win in Delhi this month.
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Who will India play in the semi final if they win?
The winner plays the winner of Bangladesh vs Malaysia in Semi Final 2 on October 1 at Kōrogi Sports Park.
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Who is the best Dream11 captain for IND vs AFG?
Abhishek Sharma is our top pick as an in form opener who can also bowl. Axar Patel is the best vice captain choice because of his likely powerplay overs.
Final Thoughts
India should win this India vs Afghanistan quarter final, and the weather may even make it easy for them. The more interesting question is whether Afghanistan get to play enough cricket to show what this new group can do. After what happened in Hangzhou, a full 20 overs each way would be a small win in itself for Afghan fans. Watch Axar’s first over and Arab Gul’s first spell. Those two moments will tell you how this match goes.
The morning quarter final sets the tone for the day, and our Pakistan vs Hong Kong quarter final preview covers the other side of the draw.
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