By Tanzeel Ul Rehman | September 29, 2026
Our Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final prediction has two answers. If a full match is played, Nepal are slight favourites at 55 percent. If rain wipes it out, Sri Lanka go through on seeding without batting. The match starts at 9:00 AM local time on Tuesday, September 29 at Kōrogi Sports Park, Nisshin, which is 5:00 AM in Pakistan and 5:30 AM in India. Both quarter finals on Monday were abandoned without a ball, and in both cases the seeded team went through.
This preview explains why the rain rule hurts Nepal so badly, why a full strength Nepal side may be better than this Sri Lanka squad, and what history these two have, including a washout at the 2024 T20 World Cup. Results from every round are on our Asian Games 2026 cricket hub.
SL vs NEP QF3: Key Information
| Match | Quarter Final 3, men’s cricket, Asian Games 2026 |
| Teams | Sri Lanka vs Nepal |
| Date | Tuesday, September 29, 2026 |
| Local start | 9:00 AM (Japan) |
| Venue | Kōrogi Sports Park, Nisshin |
| Captains | Sahan Arachchige (Sri Lanka), Dipendra Singh Airee (Nepal) |
| Semi final for the winner | India, Thursday October 1, 2:00 PM local time |
The prize is big. The winner meets India, the defending champions, with a medal match guaranteed either way. For Nepal, a semi final would be their best ever Asian Games result.
SL vs NEP Start Time by Country
| Country | Time |
|---|---|
| Japan | 9:00 AM, Tuesday |
| Nepal | 5:45 AM, Tuesday |
| Sri Lanka | 5:30 AM, Tuesday |
| India | 5:30 AM, Tuesday |
| Pakistan | 5:00 AM, Tuesday |
Fans in Nepal and Sri Lanka face an early wake up. On a day like this, check for rain delays before you set the alarm.
Why Rain Is Nepal’s Biggest Opponent
Rain has already shaped this tournament. Of the eight men’s matches so far at Kōrogi Sports Park, four have been lost to weather. On Monday, Pakistan vs Hong Kong and India vs Afghanistan were both abandoned without a ball, and Pakistan and India went through as the higher ranked teams. We had flagged exactly this in our Pakistan vs Hong Kong preview.
The rule is simple. If no result is possible, the team with the higher ICC ranking advances. Sri Lanka were seeded straight into the quarter finals on ranking. Nepal came through the group stage. So a washout today sends Sri Lanka to the semi finals and knocks Nepal out, even though Nepal topped Group A and beat Afghanistan.
Forecasts disagree about Tuesday. One model gives only a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures around 18 to 23°C. Others expect showers through the day. Nepal should hope the dry forecast is right. If play starts even for a shortened game, say 8 or 10 overs a side, Nepal get the chance to win on the field.
This is harsh on the qualifiers, but it is how Asian Games cricket has always worked. There is no reserve day and no super over for a match that never starts. Ranking is the only tiebreaker available.
The Match That Never Happened: Sri Lanka vs Nepal in 2024
These two teams were supposed to meet at the 2024 T20 World Cup in Lauderhill, Florida. The match was abandoned without a ball because of rain, and the lost point helped end Sri Lanka’s campaign in the group stage.
So as things stand, Sri Lanka and Nepal have never completed a T20I against each other. Today could be the first one, or the second washout in a row between them at a major event.
That 2024 match also shows how quickly the gap between them has closed. At that World Cup, Nepal pushed South Africa to the last ball and lost by one run. Since then, they have won the 2025 Asia and EAP regional qualifier and the 2026 ACC Men’s Premier Cup. They are no longer a side that big teams can take lightly.
Is Nepal Actually the Better Team Right Now?
Nepal: Group Winners at Full Strength
Nepal sent almost their full T20 side, and it showed. Against Afghanistan, left arm spinner Lalit Rajbanshi took three wickets in the powerplay and Kushal Bhurtel added 4 for 21. They held Afghanistan to 102 for 7 and knocked off the runs in the 18th over. Our Afghanistan vs Nepal preview had called Nepal’s spinners the deciding factor.
Against Japan, the batting took over. In a rain shortened 15 over innings, Sundeep Jora made 57 not out off 32 balls and Lokesh Bam smashed 52 not out off 22, with six sixes. Nepal made 149 for 4 before the rain came, as covered in our Japan vs Nepal preview. Jora leads the tournament run chart with 91 runs.
The key point is that Nepal have played two games at this ground and know how the pitch behaves.
Sri Lanka: A Reserve Side With No Games in Japan
Sri Lanka’s first choice white ball players are touring England, so the Asian Games squad is a development group. Captain Sahan Arachchige leads it, with experience from Niroshan Dickwella, Chamika Karunaratne and slingy fast bowler Nuwan Thushara.
There is talent here, including young wrist spinner Wanuja Sahan and fast bowler Binura Fernando. But the squad has played very little international cricket together, and it has not played a single game in Japan. Its first match of the tournament is a knockout against a side that has already won here.
Our view: on current form, and given the familiarity with conditions, Nepal are a slightly better team today than this Sri Lanka squad. Sri Lanka’s ranking, and the rain rule, are what keep them favourites overall.
Nepal’s Asian Games Record: From 314 Runs to Hangzhou Heartbreak
At the last Asian Games in Hangzhou, Nepal made headlines on their opening day. They scored 314 for 3 against Mongolia, which was the highest total in T20I history at the time. Kushal Malla hit a 34 ball hundred and finished on 137 not out, and Dipendra Singh Airee made a fifty off just 9 balls, the fastest in T20Is. Both players are in this squad, and Airee is now captain.
Their tournament ended in the quarter final, where they lost to India by 23 runs after chasing 203.
This time, Nepal have the chance to go one step further. That is the backdrop for today. Nepal are playing for a first ever Asian Games semi final and a guaranteed shot at a medal.
Sri Lanka have the better Asian Games history. They won gold in 2014 in Incheon. But almost nobody from that team is involved now, and this squad has no memories of that run to draw on.
Sri Lanka vs Nepal Head to Head and Key Stats
| Stat | Detail |
|---|---|
| T20I matches completed | 0 |
| Last scheduled meeting | T20 World Cup 2024, Lauderhill, abandoned without a ball |
| Sri Lanka Asian Games best | Gold, Incheon 2014 |
| Nepal Asian Games best | Quarter final, Hangzhou 2023 |
| Nepal’s record T20I total | 314/3 vs Mongolia, Hangzhou 2023 |
| Top run scorer in this tournament | Sundeep Jora (Nepal), 91 |
| Top Nepal wicket takers here | Kushal Bhurtel 4, Lalit Rajbanshi 3 |
With no completed head to head, the numbers that matter for the Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final are the ones from this venue. In the four full first innings played at Kōrogi Sports Park, the average total is around 108. Only Nepal’s shortened innings against Japan went past 130. A score of 140 should be very competitive today.
Sri Lanka vs Nepal Squads
Sri Lanka: Sahan Arachchige (captain), Niroshan Dickwella (wicketkeeper), Sohan de Livera (wicketkeeper), Lasith Croospulle, Nuwanidu Fernando, Ashen Bandara, Dushan Hemantha, Chamika Karunaratne, Binura Fernando, Tharindu Hansaka, Sineth Jayawardena, Pramod Madushan, Wanuja Sahan, Nuwan Thushara
Nepal: Dipendra Singh Airee (captain), Rohit Paudel, Kushal Bhurtel, Lokesh Bam, Sundeep Jora, Aasif Sheikh (wicketkeeper), Sompal Kami, Aarif Sheikh, Gulsan Jha, Kushal Malla, Karan KC, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Nandan Yadav, Sher Malla
What Is at Stake Beyond This Quarter Final?
For Nepal, the stakes go well beyond one match. An Asian Games medal would be the biggest result in the country’s cricket history. Asian Games medals also carry weight with governments and sports ministries, which in a country like Nepal can mean real funding for grounds, academies and domestic cricket. A semi final against India, watched by millions across South Asia, would also be the most visible game Nepal have ever played outside a World Cup.
For Sri Lanka, the stakes are about depth. With the senior team in England, this tournament is a trial for the next group of white ball players. Wanuja Sahan, Binura Fernando and Lasith Croospulle all have a chance to push for places in the main side before the next World Cup cycle. Losing to Nepal would raise uncomfortable questions about how deep Sri Lanka’s player pool really is.
That imbalance matters on the day. Nepal will be playing the biggest match of many of their careers. Sri Lanka’s young players will be playing for a place in a different team. History suggests the side with more to lose emotionally, here Nepal, can either rise to the moment or freeze. Their calm chase against Afghanistan suggests the first.
Sri Lanka vs Nepal Quarter Final Probable Playing 11
| Sri Lanka | Nepal |
|---|---|
| Niroshan Dickwella (wk) | Kushal Bhurtel |
| Lasith Croospulle | Aasif Sheikh (wk) |
| Nuwanidu Fernando | Sundeep Jora |
| Ashen Bandara | Rohit Paudel |
| Sahan Arachchige (c) | Dipendra Singh Airee (c) |
| Chamika Karunaratne | Lokesh Bam |
| Dushan Hemantha | Kushal Malla |
| Wanuja Sahan | Gulsan Jha |
| Pramod Madushan | Sompal Kami |
| Binura Fernando | Sandeep Lamichhane |
| Nuwan Thushara | Lalit Rajbanshi |
Sri Lanka: with no games yet, this is the most experienced XI available. Expect two wrist spinners if the pitch looks dry.
Nepal: they are unlikely to change a winning group. Lokesh Bam’s 22 ball fifty should keep him in over Karan KC, with Nepal going for batting depth.
Three Duels to Watch in QF3
Lalit Rajbanshi vs Sri Lanka’s top order. Left arm spin in the powerplay broke Afghanistan. Sri Lanka’s top order includes left hander Dickwella, and against him the ball will turn in rather than away. Rajbanshi may need to change his line, and whether he adjusts quickly could decide the game.
Sundeep Jora vs Wanuja Sahan. Jora is the in form batter of the tournament and is excellent against pace. Wanuja’s wrist spin is the one kind of bowling Jora has not faced here yet. If Sri Lanka’s young leg spinner removes him, Nepal lose their best middle overs batter.
Nuwan Thushara vs Kushal Bhurtel, first over. Thushara’s slingy, round arm action swings the new ball into right handers. Bhurtel likes to attack from the first ball. It is a classic early contest, and a wicket in the first over would put Nepal under pressure straight away.
SL vs NEP Dream11 Team
| Role | Players |
|---|---|
| Wicketkeepers | Niroshan Dickwella, Aasif Sheikh |
| Batters | Sundeep Jora, Kushal Bhurtel, Nuwanidu Fernando |
| All rounders | Dipendra Singh Airee, Sahan Arachchige, Chamika Karunaratne |
| Bowlers | Lalit Rajbanshi, Sandeep Lamichhane, Nuwan Thushara |
Split: Nepal 6, Sri Lanka 5.
- Captain: Sundeep Jora. Top run scorer of the tournament, in form, and bats in the middle overs where most of the scoring happens on this pitch.
- Vice captain: Kushal Bhurtel. He opens the batting and bowls leg spin, and took 4 for 21 against Afghanistan. That gives him two ways to score points.
- Grand league pick: Lalit Rajbanshi. His economy of 3.25 at this ground means even one wicket plus tight overs scores well.
- Differential: Wanuja Sahan. A young leg spinner few users will pick, bowling on a pitch that has helped spin all week.
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Toss Advice for Sri Lanka vs Nepal
Bowl first. For the Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final, the conditions and the weather both point the same way. The morning start, the humidity and a possible easterly breeze all help swing bowlers early. More importantly, with any chance of rain, batting second means knowing the exact revised target. Chasing sides have won two of the four completed games at this venue, including Nepal against Afghanistan.
Sri Lanka vs Nepal Quarter Final Prediction: Who Goes Through?
| Factor | Edge |
|---|---|
| Current form | Nepal |
| Knowledge of the ground | Nepal (two games played) |
| Spin bowling | Nepal (Lamichhane, Rajbanshi, Bhurtel) |
| Experience | Sri Lanka (Dickwella, Karunaratne) |
| Rain or washout | Sri Lanka (higher ranking) |
Prediction:
- If a full or shortened match is played: Nepal 55 percent, Sri Lanka 45 percent.
- Overall, including the washout risk: roughly even.
Our Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final prediction leans towards Nepal on the field because they have a settled side, three quality spinners on a pitch that suits them, and two games of experience here. Sri Lanka’s reserve squad is talented, but it is walking into a knockout cold.
Sri Lanka’s best path is experience. Dickwella needs to attack the powerplay, and Thushara needs early wickets before the Nepal spinners take control. If they get Nepal below 120, their deeper batting should see them home.
How to Watch SL vs NEP
In India, the game is on the Sony Sports Network and SonyLIV. In the USA and Canada, it is on Willow TV. Viewers in Nepal and Sri Lanka should check local sports channel listings. Live scores and any rain updates will be on ESPNcricinfo’s Asian Games 2026 page, and the official medal picture is on Olympics.com.
Sri Lanka vs Nepal Quarter Final FAQs
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Who will win the Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final?
If a match is played, we make Nepal slight favourites at 55 percent, because of their form and experience at this ground. If rain prevents a result, Sri Lanka go through on their higher ranking.
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What time does SL vs NEP start?
It starts at 9:00 AM Japan time on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. That is 5:30 AM in India and Sri Lanka, 5:45 AM in Nepal and 5:00 AM in Pakistan.
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What happens if rain washes out Sri Lanka vs Nepal?
If no result is possible, the higher ranked team advances. That is Sri Lanka, so Nepal would be knocked out without playing, as happened to Hong Kong and Afghanistan on Monday.
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Have Sri Lanka and Nepal played each other in T20Is before?
They have never completed a T20I. Their only scheduled meeting, at the 2024 T20 World Cup in Florida, was abandoned without a ball being bowled.
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Why is Sri Lanka not playing its main team?
Sri Lanka’s first choice white ball players are on tour in England, so they sent a development squad to the Asian Games under captain Sahan Arachchige.
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Has Nepal ever won an Asian Games medal in cricket?
No. Nepal’s best Asian Games finish in men’s cricket is a quarter final place. Beating Sri Lanka would put them in the semi finals for the first time, with a medal match guaranteed.
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Who will the winner of Sri Lanka vs Nepal play in the semi final?
The winner plays India in the second semi final on Thursday, October 1, at 2:00 PM Japan time at Kōrogi Sports Park.
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Who is the best Dream11 captain for SL vs NEP?
Sundeep Jora is our pick. He is the top run scorer of the tournament. Kushal Bhurtel is the best vice captain because he bats at the top and bowls leg spin.
Last Word
Nepal have done everything right in this tournament, which is why this Sri Lanka vs Nepal quarter final matters so much to them. They won their group, beat Afghanistan and batted brilliantly against Japan. And yet a grey sky could end their campaign without a ball being bowled. If the weather holds, this is the best chance they have had to reach a major semi final, against a Sri Lanka side that is talented but new to these conditions. Watch the first six overs. If Nepal’s spinners take early wickets, India will have a very interesting semi final opponent.
The full knockout bracket is in our Asian Games 2026 schedule and squads guide.
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